Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| O/U 37.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| O/U 43.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Kansas State O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 47.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Kansas State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| Arizona State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 49% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 49% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 44% |
| Kansas State O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Arizona State O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| Arizona State O/U 35.5 | 40% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Kansas State O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Kansas State O/U 29.5 | 33% |
| Kansas State O/U 32.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Arizona State O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Arizona State O/U 32.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 65.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| O/U 71.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 73.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| O/U 75.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 85% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Kansas State vs. Arizona State. In the upcoming college football game between Kansas State and Arizona State, scheduled for October 24 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas State" if Kansas State win the game. This marke…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $169K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutschland ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Kansas State vs. Arizona State" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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