Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 33% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 24% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 92% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutschland ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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