Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 57% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 34% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Spain vs. Austria - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Spain vs. Austria - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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