Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 71% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 6% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →