Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 13% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: norway vs. england - player props 94%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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