Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| O/U 51.5 | 57% |
| Spread -13.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| O/U 47.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Arkansas O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Spread -21.5 | 48% |
| Spread -11.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Arkansas O/U 30.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 53.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 59.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Tulsa O/U 27.5 | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 31% |
| Tulsa vs. Arkansas | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| O/U 71.5 | 17% |
Markt-Kontext
Tulsa vs. Arkansas. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 28% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $398K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Tulsa vs. Arkansas auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Tulsa vs. Arkansas" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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