Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 31.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| Eagles O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Eagles O/U 21.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 55% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 15.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Eagles O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 48% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 40% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 40% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Commanders O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | 32% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| O/U 53.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 25.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 18% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| O/U 57.5 | 15% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Commanders O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 93%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If the game is post…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $95K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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