Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 94% |
| O/U 206.5 | 93% |
| O/U 208.5 | 91% |
| O/U 210.5 | 88% |
| O/U 212.5 | 85% |
| Hornets O/U 102.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 82% |
| O/U 216.5 | 78% |
| Hornets O/U 104.5 | 78% |
| O/U 218.5 | 75% |
| Hornets O/U 106.5 | 74% |
| O/U 220.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 72% |
| O/U 222.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 66% |
| O/U 224.5 | 64% |
| O/U 226.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 61% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | 57% |
| 1H Moneyline | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 56% |
| Hornets O/U 124.5 | 56% |
| O/U 228.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 230.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| Hornets O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Hornets O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Hornets O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Hornets O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Hornets O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Hornets O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 105.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Heat 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 48% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Heat O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| Hornets O/U 114.5 | 48% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 232.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 39.5 | 44% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Overtime? | 43% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 42% |
| O/U 234.5 | 41% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 236.5 | 38% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 34% |
| O/U 238.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Hornets O/U 120.5 | 31% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Heat O/U 123.5 | 30% |
| O/U 240.5 | 29% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Hornets O/U 122.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -11.5 | 26% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 25% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Heat O/U 125.5 | 24% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 23% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 21% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -15.5 | 19% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 19% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Heat O/U 127.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 17% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 16% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 16% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 250.5 | 14% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 14% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 252.5 | 12% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 254.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| O/U 256.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 7% |
| O/U 258.5 | 7% |
| O/U 260.5 | 7% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -27.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 3% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 94% Chance für prognose: heat vs. hornets. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $317K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutschland ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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