Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 40.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 54% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. Giants: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| O/U 48.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 35% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| O/U 50.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| O/U 52.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| O/U 54.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: cardinals vs. giants 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If Giants wins, the market will resolve to "Giants". If t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $72K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Cardinals vs. Giants auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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