Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 90% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 33.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 83% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -11.5 | 41% |
| O/U 50.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Spread -12.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 65.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 97% Chance für prognose: cardinals vs. 49ers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:05PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $241K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Polymarket Deutschland, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutschland ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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