Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 34.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 66% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 62% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| O/U 50.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 52.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: broncos vs. chiefs 93%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.0M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Polymarket Deutschland, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutschland ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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