Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Polymarket Deutschland) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 72% |
| O/U 34.5 | 70% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 62% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 44% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 37% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| O/U 48.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 18% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 95% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Seahawks vs. Broncos. In the upcoming NFL football game between Seahawks and Broncos, scheduled for October 15 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if Seahawks win the game. This market will resolve to "Bro…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $596K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Seahawks vs. Broncos auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Polymarket Deutschland. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Polymarket Deutschland ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Seahawks vs. Broncos" auf Polymarket Deutschland handeln
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